What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?

We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with Iraq. The novel feature of our analysis derives from the existence of a market for Saddam Securities,' a new future traded on an online betting exchange that pays only if Saddam Hussein is ousted. A variety of tests suggest that this future's price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate disruptions to dissipate quickly, with prices returning to pre-war levels within about a year and a half. Evidence on the long-run effects is fragile, and while prices are probably expected to fall a little as a result of war, any oil dividend' will be minimal. We find large effects in equity markets: and war lowers the value of U.S. equities by around 15 percent. This effect is concentrated in the consumer discretionary sector, airlines and IT; the prospect of war bolsters the gold and energy sectors. Analyzing option prices, we find that the large estimated average effects of war reflect the market pricing in a range of different scenarios - a 70 percent probability that it will lead to market declines of 0 to 15 percent, a 20 percent chance of 15 to 30 percent declines, and a 10 percent risk of a fall in excess of 30 percent. Across countries, the most extreme effects are on the stock markets of Turkey, Israel, and several European nations. Countries that are highly enmeshed in the world economy, or net oil importers, are most likely to experience adverse effects from war.

Maximus the Confessor & the Trinity - The Early Works

In this study, I will argue that Maximus the Confessor’s (580-662 CE) engagement with the ascetic concerns and the theological controversies of the sixth and seventh century helped develop his early works toward a unique and distinctively Trinitarian articulation of Christian life and post-Chalcedonian theology. In the Liber asceticus, Maximus illustrates the Trinity as the beginning, means and end of Christian life, highlighting baptism, the Spirit’s appropriation of Son’s activities to the baptized, how the incarnate Son serves as the example of love and interweaves Trinitarian prayer into the dialogue’s appeal for mercy. Using the Liber as a baseline (Ch. 1), Chapter 2 places his Trinitarian grammar for Christian life in its ascetic context demonstrating areas of continuity but also its unique contribution. The subsequent chapters then track this grammar’s development by analyzing the increased complexity, sparked by his engagement with various concerns and controversies, displayed in Capita caritate (Ch. 3), Quaestiones et dubia and Epistula 2 (Ch.4). The last section of Ch.4 provides a context for his engagement of pro-Chalcedonian theology and its development in Opusculum 13. In the Capita, Maximus’ engagement with Origenism underscores the irreducible difference between God and creation yet also how they are sustained, preserved and deified through participation. His engagement with demonstrates the necessity of joining θεωρία and πρᾶξις, giving an early glimpse of union and distinction in his Trinitarian theology. Finally, what was only illustrated in the Liber, is made explicit through a robust explanation of contemplation and prayer. In Quaestiones, Maximus begins to fix his terminology for the stages of ascent. Additionally, while continuing to engage with Origenism, he introduces more technical language for the incarnation, utilizes the Logos/λόγοι doctrine for ascent and applies the λόγος/τρόπος distinction for the Trinity. Then, in Ep. 2, he integrates these new features from Quaestiones into his description of ascent and the incarnation. Finally, in Op. 13, Maximus departs from his earlier concern for ascent yet, like his other early works, reveals engagement with a specific controversy – miaphysitism

Irrigation and drainage in the new millennium

Presented at the 2000 USCID international conference, Challenges facing irrigation and drainage in the new millennium on June 20-24 in Fort Collins, Colorado.Includes bibliographical references.In 1998, eight irrigation districts in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas initiated efforts to develop GIS-based District Management Systems (DMS). This paper provides a description of GIS (geographical information system) as applied to irrigation districts, its potential for improving the day-to-day management of districts, and the progress and difficulties encountered by the 8 districts in GIS mapping and implementation. Examples of how districts are using GIS are given, along with the value and use of the DMS in a regional water planning project

Chemotherapy treatment of multiple myeloma patients increases circulating levels of endothelial microvesicles

Correspondenc

Meeting irrigation demands in a water-challenged environment

Presented at Meeting irrigation demands in a water-challenged environment: SCADA and technology: tools to improve production: a USCID water management conference held on September 28 - October 1, 2010 in Fort Collins, Colorado.Includes bibliographical references.Delivering water efficiently through distribution networks is a priority for irrigation districts but often is a difficult goal to achieve. SCADA shows promise of improving operational efficiency, increasing flexibility in the amount and timing of water deliveries, and reducing spills and other losses in distribution networks. However, implementing SCADA in a district for the first time is a difficult process. Districts often do not understand or are distrustful of the technology. They often do not know or understand how their system actually operates, thus making it difficult to design SCADA systems and to determine operational parameters and control algorithms. Selecting equipment that is easy to integrate into district operations is not a simple decision. Simple tasks such as selection of sensors and communication hardware become time consuming because of the need to explain advantages and disadvantages of each component. District boards of directors are normally reluctant to spend money, which further complicates the process. Once SCADA is installed, district personnel have to be trained on how to use the equipment to perform daily operations. In this paper we discuss the process of implementing SCADA projects for the first time in a district that had no previous experience with such technology or control systems. The paper will cover both hardware aspects as well as human consideration, and discuss some of the many lessons learned

Does Family Communication Orientation Relate to How We Use Time? A Preliminary Study on Family Communication Patterns and People’s Perspective on Time

A web survey study of 853 respondents examined whether family communication patterns predicted people’s orientation to time. Conversation orientation was negatively and significantly related with a past negative perspective on time and was positively and significantly related to past positive, present hedonistic, and future orientation perspectives on time. Conformity orientation was positively and significantly related to past negative, present hedonistic, and present fatalistic perspectives on time but was negatively and significantly related to a past positive perspective on time. Multiple linear regression results indicated that both conversation orientation and conformity orientation were significant predictors of various time orientations

Rapid assessment tool

Presented during the Third international conference on irrigation and drainage held March 30 - April 2, 2005 in San Diego, California. The theme of the conference was "Water district management and governance."Includes bibliographical references.A rapid assessment tool (RAT) is being developed for evaluating irrigation network performance. As part of that development, the relationship between condition rating factors and seepage loss measurements was examined. The statistical analysis was based on 32 ponding test sites in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LGRV). The results indicate that seepage losses from the lined canal segments can be modeled as a function of a rating factor describing the spacing of large cracks in the lower part of the canal cross-section. Cross-section appears to be a moderating variable in relating seepage loss to canal condition. Separate ratings are proposed for overall canal condition and seepage loss condition for lined canals. There was no statistical relationship between seepage loss and condition rating factors for unlined canals. The overall condition of the lined canal was correlated with the rating of canal bank condition. Presently the RAT is the only reported rating scheme that utilizes Geographic Information System (GIS) to display the rated conditions.Sponsored by USCID; co-sponsored by Association of California Water Agencies and International Network for Participatory Irrigation Management

EM-105 Expansion of Urban Area in Irrigation Districts of the Rio Grande River Basin, 1996 - 2006: A Map Series

The border region of Texas is experiencing rapid urban growth which is expected to have a continuing and increasing impact on the irrigation districts of the region. This report presents an analysis of the expansion of urban area during the ten year period from 1996 to 2006 in portions of the Rio Grande Basin. This report includes maps of five counties: El Paso, Maverick, Cameron, Hidalgo and Willacy, which show the expansion of urban area over this ten year period. Also, shown on the maps are the service areas of 30 irrigation districts. Individual maps of the districts have been distributed to each district and are posted at http://idea.tamu.edu. Hudspeth and Presidio Counties (and their associated irrigation districts: Hudspeth County Conservation and Reclamation District No.1 and Presidio County Water Improvement District No.1) are not included in this map series due to insignificant urban growth

Creation of an Influenza B Epigraph Vaccine

The CDC struggles to predict the upcoming influenza viruses resulting in an ineffective influenza vaccine. The 2019 – 2020 influenza vaccine provides an example of vaccine mismatch where the vaccine poorly matches the circulating influenza strains. We have created Influenza B Epigraph hemagglutinin (HA) immunogens that are computationally designed to select the greatest coverage of B and T cell epitopes in the natural population. Our preliminary data shows Epigraph immunogens induce superior cross-reactive antibody responses, overall T cell immunity, breadth of T cell epitopes, and protection against influenza virus. The primary goal of this study is to clone the influenza B Epigraph HA immunogens into DNA and Adenoviral mammalian expression systems. We will characterize these novel HA immunogens for the prevention of influenza B virus infections. Ultimately, we seek to develop novel universal influenza vaccines that provide a foundation of immunity which protects against all past, present, and future influenza viruses

270V Battery Using COTS NiCd Cells For Manned Spacecraft

A high power (>35 kW at 215V), low capacity (5.2 Ah), and compact (45L) NiCd battery was developed for the X-38 Crew Return Vehicle (CRV), which is an experimental version of the lifeboat for the International Space Station (ISS). A simple design and innovative approach using a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) NiCd cell design enabled the design, qualification, and production of 4 flight units of this highly reliable and safe spacecraft battery to be achieved rapidly (2 years) and cheaply ($13M)